By contributing writer Paul Fischi, ’25

As the 2021 redistricting season reaches its halfway mark, America will continue to redraw its congressional districts from all across the country, with each state having a different process. Redistricting during this year’s cycle was and will continue to be gerrymandered. Republicans have the opportunity to redraw 182 congressional districts, compared to Democrats’ 58. Many Republicans have already gerrymandered districts in traditionally red states such as Texas and North Carolina, but also in a few swing states like Arizona, Ohio, and Iowa. As a response, contradictory to the Democratic Party’s previous stance on banning gerrymandering nationwide, they found that with the popular vote not in their favor for the 2022 election cycle, they resorted to fighting fire with fire (gerrymandering) in states such as California and Illinois. New York will likely follow, as it is the second largest Democrat-controlled state.

Gerrymandering is the manipulation of electoral districts in a state’s legislative bodies and on the national level for a state in the House of Representatives by one political party. The methods of packing and cracking are used to diminish votes as much as possible to be used to elect a maximum number of the party in elections and gain control in that legislative body. Packing is trapping an excessive amount of the opposing party’s constituents in a few districts while cracking is diluting the opposing party’s constituent base to dilute them with the ruling party’s votes as a majority to maximize their influence in an effort to waste the opposing parties votes as much as possible.

One certain political party can only have complete control over a state’s redistricting if they control both legislative bodies (House and Senate), or a singular one (depending on the state) as well as the state’s governorship. This is why both parties have been spending much of their finances on smaller statewide races so they can influence the redistricting process. This is the case because maps have to get drafted and approved by the entire state government, and require approval from the legislature and governor. As the legislature creates the maps in many states, the governor must approve the map, unless the legislature can override their veto in rare cases. Many states have split control in their state governments and require cooperation between parties. While the entire state government has to approve the map, who creates the map varies by state with independent commissions in several states which are supposed to create fair maps independent from partisan gerrymandering, though it does not guarantee a fair map.

In the state of New York, Democrats hold both the House and Senate by large margins, and Kathy Hochul, a Democrat, currently holds the governorship all with an independent commission with minimal authority. As a result, Democrats have complete control over the entire redistricting process and can gerrymander the state in any way beneficial towards them, most evidently in the national congressional map where New York loses one congressional seat from their previous 27 due to national apportionment of congressional seats, as New York’s population growth is slower than in other states. Democrats are responding nationwide to Republican efforts to gerrymander certain states, and New York is the perfect candidate to counter them. Democrats would like to ensure that the Republicans lose the one seat in apportionment, and one of the key Republican targets is Representative John Katko of NY District 24, which includes Syracuse.

There are currently eight Republican incumbents from New York in the House of Representatives, seven of which are in Republican-majority districts. Katko, however, is in the only Democrat majority district with the heavily liberal city of Syracuse outnumbering the more conservative rural voters of Wayne, Auburn, and Oswego Counties. But being a popular representative, he was able to win by enticing moderate voters in the suburbs of Onondaga County. As such, he is a prime target for Democrats on the drawing boards, but simply keeping him in his own Democratic lean district is not enough to remove him from office, as proven numerous times, unlike other incumbents. Instead, the likely approach is creating Democrat-leaning districts by redrawing the map to include new liberal constituents in Ithaca or Rochester unfamiliar with Katko’s moderate policies, and the city of Syracuse may be split, losing previous voters. Also, the central position of the district may be hard to keep, due to population shifts as an uncertain district in upstate New York will be divided due to apportionment. Nonetheless, it is evident that NY District 24 will be intact following the 2021 redistricting cycle.

Republicans largely brought it on themselves, as the Democratic effort to gerrymander the state was a retaliation to the same on the Republican side. New York however does have an independent commission, currently out with two generally bipartisan maps which New York Republicans are vouching for. However, they are unlikely to pass, and the state is likely to draft its own Democratic biased map before April 4, 2022, when congressional candidates start filing for their bids in those districts. Republicans are largely preparing for incumbents to be drawn out, as ideas for proposed maps exist by packing upstate Republicans into three solid red districts, contrary to the current five Republican representatives, likely outdrawing a few incumbents. However, Tom Reed retiring in NY District 23 may result in less infighting. Democrats have already vowed to “bomb” Elise Stefankis (District 21) to include Republicans in heavily red Oneida County and further packing New York’s Republican base, to their detriment.

While I expect Democrats to be harsh in the new map, there could also be a scenario where one of the maps from the independent commission passes allowing for a fairer map, or even less likely, where the state has to draft its own map instead and creates its own fair map. While the scenario is unlikely, it is not unheard of. Democrats held back gerrymandering in states such as Virginia and Colorado by implementing independent commissions which came to bipartisan solutions, which should give some hope to New York Republicans. Though in both states their independent commissions held more authority than the one in New York, and the Democrats expressed concern for both maps for not taking advantage of Democratic trifectas in state governments, and in the state of California, drafted a new biased map through their independent commission through the overarching process in which partisan ideas were implemented in an independent commission. In the highest likelihood, however, New York will resort to a state-drafted biased map.

The 2020 redistricting cycle will continue to be eventful as states continue to draft and approve new maps for the 2022 midterm elections. Amidst the national redistricting, the state of New York will continue to follow through with its statewide process, in which I eagerly await the new map before April. As districts get rearranged in the new map, Republican incumbents will continue to get drawn out of their districts all across the state. The question is whether they will be able to oust Katko despite his popularity.